Paradigm shifts and Project 2040

In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.” His observation has been echoed by people ever since and changed a bit over time, but has remained a stark warning.

Only anarchy the way most people think of it rarely occurs.  We have found that people are more likely to band together when their communities face some sort of disaster, be it from war, plague or natural disaster.   We are all too familiar with pictures and videos of communities digging through the rubble of bombed buildings searching for survivors...but how many of us remember the moments during the Covid epidemic of people singing from their balconies?  

When you have a community; people will always help people.  Despite these bleak times the things that make us human - our compassion - will see us through.

Recently my life changed due to issues with a car.  While, in the scheme of things it was a minor crisis it did make me think if things could have been done differently, or better.   Thankfully we were prepared for a financial "crisis"; a majority of people are not.  

It occurs to me that this part of the focus of this blog.  Helping people where and when I can to prepare for what is to come.  

The question is however, what exactly is to come?

Well it depends.  I actually do hold out hope for a brighter and greener future.  We are going to suffer some of the effects of global warming and, hopefully, delay the worst of it till we are better prepared.  The immediate future is going to be horrible and tough BUT I do believe there will be a future.  

Project 2040 was an MIT computer stimulation where various points of data were input and the program was run hundreds if not thousands of time.   Back during the 1970's when data modeling was new, the conclusions reached were simply derided and Project 2040 was forgotten about.

As computer science advanced, Project 2040 was often reviewed, tweaked and rerun.  The results were nearly all the same showing that the original program was sound in its conclusions.  One of those conclusions, and the one that most people are familiar with is that civilizations collapses in 2040.

Not all the outcomes of this data model were bleak, and one or two of the outcomes were actually encouraging.

It would just take a change in the way we did things.

 

Currently we are undergoing a paradigm shift. If you are not familiar with the term it is defined as an important change that happens when the usual way of thinking about or doing something is replaced by a new or different way.

This shift is subtle and often occurs in small ways, but we are witnessing it occurring all around us.  For example, not far from where I live a solar farm is being built and while there was some minor opposition to it, most people in our community where actually supportive.

My hometown of Pittsburgh may have stalled in their plans to reduce emissions but the good news is that Pittsburgh is an international leader is reducing emissions from commercial sites and we are seeing a reduction in green house gas emissions around the world.  On a national stage the government invested billions of dollars to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and setting clear and obtainable goals for the future.  Recently the EPA proposed the strongest pollution standards to date.

Meanwhile in business, the tried and true method of doing things is clearly feeling pressure to change.  This change is still in its infancy but when Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser states that phasing out oil and gas is a "fantasy" one can hear the worry in his voice.   

While Nasser does raise some fair points, it was not that long ago where such talk as "phasing out oil and gas" would have been brushed aside and not even addressed by big oil companies and politicians.  The fact that it is being addressed indicates just how much progress has been made in the last few years.  

Indeed, who would have ever thought they would see the return of cargo ships under the power of the wind?  Or that a small French town would build a solar farm over a cemetery?  Or that various states and cities are suing various oil companies for their role in global warming!

All of these real world examples indicate that we are moving from that "Business as Usual" model into what the video calls the "Stabilized World" scenario.  This is where we see a heavy investment into things like renewable energy while innovation stays at a steady rate.  

It's an optimistic world view...and one that needs to be encouraged.  It's also the only one that can combat climate change. 

This paradigm shift should have started 30 years ago, but it didn't.  It is occurring today. The funny thing about paradigm shifts is once they became part of the general public conscious, the change happens at a ever increasing pace.

There is a good chance that I may not live to see 2040.  I'll be 74 at the time, and I fully expect to see temperatures rise or another pandemic or two between then and now...but I am seeing that paradigm shift occurring and I know that can change everything.

I'm glad you are part of it too.